Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 15th, 2018–Nov 16th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Glacier.

Watch for a potentially sensitive storm slab.

Weather Forecast

Upwards of 20cm of storm snow expected in the next 24hrs accompanied by gusty SW winds reaching 50km/h. Winds are forecast to shift to westerly in the overnight period.  Temperatures will be cooling with freezing levels dropping from 1500m to 900m by Friday.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of storm snow with moderate winds mainly from the S over the last 24hrs. Storm snow is landing on a thin layer of surface hoar that has been found above 1900m up Connaught drainage and in the Asulkan hut area. Deeper in the snowpack is the October melt freeze crust. Snow depths vary from 56cm at Rogers Pass, to 140-160cm in alpine areas. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed or reported in the last 24hrs. This may be in part due to lack of good visibility.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A freshly buries surface hoar layer at and above treeline is the layer to watch as storm snow load builds. The surface hoar layer has been found in both Balu and upper Asulkan drainages and is likely widespread.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

The late October crust sits near the bottom of the snowpack and is producing sudden planar and sudden collapse results. Assess this layer before committing to a line. At higher elevations a buried facet layer exists from the September snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3