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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 27th, 2018–Dec 28th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

It is a season of slow changes. These layers are very slow to change, even with short term changes in weather. Settle in, we have a ways to go before our snow problems go away.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Cloudy tomorrow with a chance of some sunny breaks. A daytime high tomorrow of -14. Light winds from the SW. No snow is expected. Pretty much a carbon copy of Thursday's weather.

Avalanche Summary

Some sz2 were noted below alpine cliffs on NE aspects.

Snowpack Summary

A few centimeters fell overnight, but not enough to cause a change in the snowpack. The continued cold temperatures are weakening the snowpack through faceting. This is a double edge sword, windslabs are weakening ,which will help stability in some places. But at the same time, the surface faceting will probably create another weak layer once we get more snow. Is the glass half empty, or half full? Snow depths vary through the region. Treeline has about a meter, while the valley bottoms have about 60cm. Generally the Dec 10th is down about 50-70cm at treeline. The "touchyness" of the Feb 10th seems to vary from drainage to drainage. Have a look/assessment if you are traveling in new terrain or haven't been out in awhile.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Slabs are everywhere in lee and cross-loaded terrain in the Alpine and open areas at Treeline. These slabs are very sensitive to human-triggering in steep and unsupported terrain.
Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The basal layers are very weak. An avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack could step down to the bottom of the snowpack.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3