Avalanche Forecast

Moderate -

Sunday night: Clear with cloudy periods and a chance of isolated flurries with a trace of new snow. Light northeast winds shifting northwest.Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light northwest winds, increasing overnight. Alpine high temperatures around -13.Tuesday: Mainly cloudy. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures around -8.Wednesday: Cloudy with minimal flurries during the day, continuing overnight. Light southwest winds, increasing overnight. Alpine high temperatures reaching -1 or higher as an alpine above freezing layer establishes toward evening.

Reports from Saturday show an active day for avalanches, with numerous, generally small (size 1-1.5) storm slab avalanches occurring both naturally and with ski cutting and skier traffic. Activity was focused in steep, unsupported terrain on all aspects. Reports from before the storm showed a steady declining trend in persistent slab avalanche activity. On Wednesday, reported activity was limited to two events. One was a large (size 2) persistent slab avalanche that was triggered by a skier in the far southwest of the region as they entered an open glade below a treed ridge on a southeast aspect at 2200 metres. The second was a small wind slab on a west facing aspect at ridgecrest. Our recent storm loading and storm slab activity has failed to produce reports of avalanches stepping down to this layer, suggesting that it may finally have reached dormancy.Looking forward, expect a decrease in natural avalanche activity while the potential for human triggering sees a more gradual decline.

Saturday's storm brought about 25-35 cm of new snow on the surface, with some isolated areas receiving up to 50 cm. Below the new snow interface, which appears for the most part to be free of any weak surface hoar crystals, 10 to 20 cm of older low density snow sits above old wind slabs in the alpine, and in some isolated areas above small surface hoar.Avalanche activity on the 70-130 cm deep weak layer that formed during the dry spell in early December has greatly diminished over the last week. This layer is composed of weak facets, surface hoar, and a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes. It is believed to be trending toward a dormant state after the loading test brought by Saturday's storm failed to produce reports of any avalanches 'stepping down' to trigger it. Places that might still challenge this assumption of dormancy would be steep north and east facing slopes between 1900-2300 m and steep south-facing slopes in the alpine.The lower snowpack is generally strong and settled, with a crust that formed in late October near the bottom of the snowpack.