Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells, West Purcell.
While the likelihood of triggering a deep persistent layer may be decreasing, it is very difficult to predict where you will or will not trigger a large avalanche.
Continue to take a conservative approach while traveling in avalanche terrain.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No significant avalanche activity has been reported in the last couple of days.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
The upper snowpack continues to settle and bond with mild temperatures. The mid and lower snowpack is generally weak and faceted, with a number of weak layers. Of significant concern is a layer down 30 to 50 cm from the surface consisting of a crust, facets, and/or surface hoar. And a layer of large facets and a crust down roughly 50 to 110 cm from the surface. The snow below this deeper weak layer is unconsolidated and weak.
Snowpack depths remain highly variable, ranging from 60 to 150 cm at treeline.
Weather Summary
Monday night
Cloudy with flurries, 0 to 2 cm. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with no precipitation. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with no precipitation. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.
Thursday
Cloudy with flurries, 0 to 2 cm. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
A weak layer near the base of the snowpack, buried in November, remains a concern despite lack of recent avalanche activity. Human triggering of this layer remains possible, especially in shallow areas with variable snow depths.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Persistent Slabs
A layer of surface hoar, facets and/or a crust may be found around 40 to 70 cm deep, which is a prime depth for human triggering. Of more concern at the treeline elevations and below.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5