Avalanche Forecast

Moderate

There has been fairly continuous avalanche activity since Friday evening with numerous size 3-3.5 out of the steep terrain on Mt. MacDonald and Mt. Tupper, with some of these running over the snow sheds and full path into the creek.

Elsewhere in the Park there were several size 1.5-2.0 from Mt. Smart, Ross Peak, Mt. Abbott and Cougar Mountain.

On Wednesday, explosives training produced numerous size 1-2 avalanches in steep terrain, mostly failing on the Jan 3 surface hoar, which is now buried ~40cm. One result scrubbed to ground on a shallow rocky rib and then stepped down to the Nov 17 deep persistent layer on the slope below, with a 1 meter deep crown, resulting in a size 3.

30cm of recent storm snow buries the Jan 12 surface hoar, and the Jan 3 surface hoar is ~20cm below that. The mid-pack consists of rounding facets and is gaining strength, while the bottom of the snowpack is weak and facetted with the Nov 17 facet/crust/surface hoar. This layer is ~50cm above the ground and has become less reactive in tests, but still shows 'sudden' results.

At tree line there is ~160cm, which is 70% of an average snowpack

Sunday will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and sunny periods. Ridge-top winds will be light from the South with alpine temps ranging from -6 to -3. Freezing level will reach up to ~1700m.

Monday will have similar weather.

Tuesday will see increasing winds and cooler temps.

• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Use caution when approaching steep and rocky terrian.