Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Waterton Lakes.
Weather Forecast
15cm, rising temperatures, and gusty alpine winds are expected with the passage of a warm front tonight. Tuesday morning as the cold front passes, expect winds to peak, temperatures to drop, and the precip to trail off. Watch out Wednesday for a strong inversion with freezing levels reaching 3000m and some potential for Strong West winds.
Snowpack Summary
160 to 200cm now at treeline. 30cm of snow accumulated since Friday now forms a very soft storm slab above faceted and wind affected surfaces. Cold temperatures slowed settlement in the 50 to 90 cm slab above the Dec 13 Crust/Facet and Dec 16 Surface Hoar layers. This has also promoted facet development above the crust and weakened this layer.
Avalanche Summary
Monday I triggered a south facing 40 degree slope at treeline by taking off my skis to dig a profile at the top of the start zone. Thankfully, only a 10cm crack formed at the crown in front of my feet, however cracks could be seen up to 50m away down the slope. Subsequent tests produced easy sudden planar shears on facets above the Dec 13 Crust.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Storm Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2