Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 7th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Loose Dry and Wind Slabs.

Lucas Gurba,

Waterton Lakes.

Changing winds over the last few days have distributed snow in irregular areas.

Use careful assessment when choosing your line.

Overhead features above ice climbs are loaded and may produce natural avalanches.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Tonight: A snowfall warning is in effect for SW Alberta. 20-30cm are forecast by tomorrow for Waterton Park.

Tues: Light snow all day with winds tapering to light NE. Alpine temps -14.

Wed: Snow tapering off by mid day then clearing. Ridge top winds moderate NE. Alpine temps -15.

Thur: Partially cloudy, winds switching to M-NW. Temps rising to -8.

Snowpack Summary

30 cm of storm snow has been redistributed into windslab by mod-strong SW winds. This overlies March 3 rain crust. An additional 50 cm of settling snow over the Feb 15 crust that exists up to 2000m. Lower snowpack is well settled 1F to P. HS 250-300 cm near the continental divide.

At the time of writing it is snowing heavily with 20-30cm forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Natural dry loose avalanches and ski cuts up to size 1.5 on Sunday's field trip. Check out the Forum Ridge Avalanche to see impressive size 3 that occurred during last weeks rain event. Keep those Mountain Information Network observations coming, and include the MIN in your pre-trip conditions research.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Up to 30cm of snow is forecasted into Tuesday. This coupled with NE winds will form storm slabs in reverse lee features.

Keep an eye out for reverse loading created by an upslope storm.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Dry

Steep sheltered areas will have up to 60cm of unconsolidated snow. Be cautious of your sluff and aware of overhead.

Be careful of loose dry sluffing in steep, confined or exposed terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

SW winds on Monday have formed windslabs in lees. These slabs are being buried by new storm snow.

If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 10th, 2022 4:00PM