Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
New snow and winds will bury surface hoar, crusts and previously wind affected snow. Storm slabs will be building throughout the day on Sunday and will likely become prone to human triggering.
Good stability has come to an end... for the time being.
Weather Forecast
Seeing the sun and venturing into steep terrain has been delightfully therapeutic, but the approaching storm system will bring back deep pow skiing, the forests will be filled with, WAHOO's, again. Snow begins Saturday night, seeing 20-40cm by early Monday. Winds on Sunday 20-50km/hr from the SW and freezing levels will remain at valley bottom,.
Snowpack Summary
Wide spread wind affect in the alpine and tree line. Surface hoar (5-15mm) growing on the near surface facets in sheltered areas. A thin breakable crust is found on steep solar aspects. All of these interfaces will be buried by the incoming 20-40cm of snow.
The Jan 20 (2-4mm) surface hoar is down 35cm. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5 - 2.5m.
Avalanche Summary
We are expecting avalanche activity / hazard to increase by the end of the day on Sunday as the incoming storm system buries surface hoar, crusts and old wind slabs.
No new avalanches observed on Saturday.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
The storm slab will be building throughout the day on Sunday and will be burying surface hoar (5-15mm) in sheltered areas, a crust on steep solar aspects and hard surfaces everywhere else. It is likely this layer will be easy to trigger.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
There are several surface hoar layers in the upper snowpack that may wake up with the incoming snow load. If triggered it has the potential to step down to the even deeper Dec 1 layer, resulting in a very large avalanche.
- Minimize exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3