Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 14th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

Chris Gooliaff,

Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is underway.

Rising temps, combined with steady snowfall and increasing winds, are elevating the avalanche hazard.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Steady flurries, rising temps, gusty strong winds from the SW

Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alp high -5*C, light/mod SW wind

Tues: Snow, 15cm, Alp high -4*C, FZL 1500m, mod/gusting strong SW winds

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alp high -7*C, FZL 1300m, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy, isolated flurries, Alp high -5*C, FZL 1400m, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow is adding up, with ~45cm on the March 11 crust (up to 1500m on all aspects, up to treeline on solar aspects). The March 7 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~55cm, the Feb 26 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~75cm, and the Feb 15 surface hoar is down 90-130cm and decomposing. Mild temps are promoting low elevation storm slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity is picking up Monday afternoon, with numerous avalanches to sz 3 detected on Macdonald, Tupper, Cheops, Frequent Flyer, etc.

A field team on Cougar Creek East was able to easily ski cut the top 35-40cm soft slabs on wind-affected rolls. Loose, moist avalanches to sz 1 were easy to initiate on rolls below 1600m.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs are growing with mild temps, steady flurries, and mod SW winds. Be wary of convex rolls, ridge crests, and open cross-loaded slopes where it may be easier to trigger the storm slab.

If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

In steep sheltered terrain, human-triggered sluffs are running within the storm snow, gathering mass as they accelerate down slope. At lower elevations, loose moist "schmooey" avalanches are easily started on all unsupported slopes.

On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.
Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 15th, 2022 4:00PM