Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 2nd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
Chris Gooliaff,
Steep, unsupported slopes at all elevations are reactive to human loads, particularly on solar aspects.
The likelihood of natural and human triggered avalanches will subside with the eventual cooling this weekend.
Summary
Weather Forecast
More uncertainty in the forecast, with a possibility of a convective cell bringing snow Wed night.
Tonight: Trace to 10cm, Alp low -3*C, light winds
Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -4*C, FZL 1700m, light NW winds
Fri: Mix of sun/cloud with flurries, Alp high -7*C, FZL 1300m, light NE winds
Sat: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -6*C, light NE winds
Snowpack Summary
30-35cm of warm snow overlies a sun crust on steep solar aspects, small surface hoar in sheltered areas Treeline and below, and facets/wind slab elsewhere. The Feb 15 surface hoar/sun crust is down 50-80cm and may wake up with the new load and warm temps. Plenty of loose, dry snow up high for wind transport during localized convective activity.
Avalanche Summary
Artillery control Tues night produced good results up to sz 3.5 with several paths dusting the hwy.
Report from Hospital Knob of skier-controlled sz 1.5-2 soft slab avalanches, ~30cm deep, running on surface hoar.
Wed's pm temp spike triggered several low elevation, S-facing moist slides.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs buried a mix of surfaces; sun crust on steep solar aspects, small surface hoar around Treeline and below, facets and firm wind slab elsewhere. S'ly aspects with sun crusts and low elevation unsupported rolls may be more sensitive.
- Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed slabs.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar and/or sun crust sits 50-80cm down, depending on wind loading and aspect. With elevated temps and a new snowload, this layer may be reactive in areas where it has not previously slid.
- Persistent slabs may be more sensitive to human triggering on solar asp where they sit on sun crust
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
