Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 14th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

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New snow and strong winds on Saturday will continue to develop reactive storm slabs at higher elevations. Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and use extra caution in wind exposed terrain. 

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A relatively weak system brings light snowfall to the western slopes for Friday night and Saturday. A short break is expected Saturday night and Sunday morning before the next system arrives Sunday afternoon. 

Friday night: Snowfall 5-10 cm, strong SW wind, freezing levels around 1200 m. 

Saturday: Snowfall 5-10 cm, strong SW wind, freezing levels around 1200 m.

Sunday: Sunny breaks in the morning, Snowfall 5-10 cm in the afternoon, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing levels reaching as high as 1500 m.

Sunday night: Snowfall 10-20 cm, strong SW wind, freezing levels around 1400 m.

Monday: Light snowfall, moderate to strong W-NW wind, freezing levels dropping to valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, the Avalanche Canada field team reported several size 1-2 storm slab avalanches in the alpine on north through east aspects in the Renshaw area, mostly releasing under cornices. These were failing in the storm snow down roughly 15-30 cm. On Thursday, a loose wet avalanche was reported on a SE aspect at 1800 m east of Prince George which was likely solar triggered. On Wednesday, skiers triggered three size 1-1.5 storm and wind slabs between 1700 and 2000 m. These slabs were 20-50 cm thick. 

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 5-10 cm of new storm snow is reported to have buried a thin breakable crust which extends to roughly 1500 m. The storm snow is settling rapidly at higher elevations and appears to be most reactive on north and east aspects where wind loading has occurred. A layer of faceted snow can likely be found down 30-60 cm from the cold period at the end of December but has not been reactive recently and does not seem to be creating an avalanche problem in most of the region. 

The early-December crust/facet interface can typically be found down 50-150 cm but has been dormant recently and is no longer expected to be creating an avalanche problem in the region. The base of the snowpack is composed of crusts and weak faceted grains, particularly in thin snowpack areas east of the divide. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

More new snow and strong SW winds will add to the existing storm slab problem. The recent storm snow is most reactive in wind loaded areas on north and east aspects at higher elevations. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 15th, 2022 4:00PM