Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 12th, 2016 9:19AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

esharp, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Coastal.

If you wake up with more than 20cm of new snow on the ground, or if the snowfall becomes intense during the day avalanche danger may be higher than advertised.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Moderate snowfall is expected to continue through until Thursday. Shames could see up to 20cm of storm snow by Wednesday morning with another 10cm through the day and 10cm overnight. Coastal regions should receive slight more, and northern areas slightly less than this. Isolated flurries are forecast for Thursday. Friday will be mainly cloudy with no significant precipitation expected. Winds will be moderate from the southwest Wednesday but should drop to light by Thursday. The freezing level will remain fairly steady between 1500m and 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

We've receive reports of several natural and skier triggered avalanches ranging from size 1-2 from across the region. It sounds like the surface hoar could be starting to wake up!

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of new snow now covers a widespread layer of surface hoar. Bellow this the upper 100cm consists of at least 3 other distinct buried weak layers of surface hoar, faceted snow, and possible thin sun crusts on some solar aspects. These deeper weak interfaces continue to produce variable results in snow pack tests. Although they appear to be gaining strength they're worth keeping on your radar a little longer. Recent strong southerly winds have formed fresh soft slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

I expect a storm snow to develop through the day. This slab is sitting above a complex snowpack with several buried weak layers. I would tread lightly until we get a good feel for how the snowpack is reacting to the new snow.

Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Jan 13th, 2016 2:00PM