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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 29th, 2012–Jan 30th, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday should see a slight cooling trend we expect the snowfall to end on Monday morning. A zonal flow is forecast through Wednesday with moderate to strong westerly winds and short-lived disturbances delivering 5 to 10 cm of snow each day, especially on the west (upslope) side of the ranges. Freezing level should remain near valley floors. Wednesday could see heavier precipitation once the next major system hits the coast; however current thinking is this will not happen until Wednesday evening.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches from low elevation avalanche paths were reported Saturday, as were small slides in the storm snow from outside the highway corridor. No reports for Sunday. Poor visibility is limiting field observations.

Snowpack Summary

Professionals around Terrace are losing track of storm snow amounts, in part because their automatic stations are buried by the 5 plus metre snowpack. Winds with the storm mean wind slabs on lee and cross-loaded terrain. Most snowpack concerns are limited to the surface layers, however deeper in the snowpack are a couple of layers of old facets & maybe a crust which still POP in stability tests at treeline and below treeline elevations in cutblocks and roadbanks.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs may be found on many slopes. I expect them to gain strength quite quickly. I expect less natural activity on Monday but conditions remain primed for human triggered slides.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Storm Slabs

Weaknesses exist within and below the deep storm snow. Like the wind slabs, I expect them to stabilize, however this could take some time, especially on steep slopes, unsupported slopes, and convex rolls.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6