Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

Overnight: The storm continues and freezing levels drop down to 500 metres by morning. This will result in 10-15 cm of new snow combined with strong southwest winds. Wednesday: Another 15-20 cm of new snow above 700 metres with moderate southwest winds. Thursday: A bit cooler with daytime freezing levels around 500 metres, moderate southerly winds and 5-10 cm of new snow. Friday: Strong southwest winds and 10-15 cm of new snow.

Several wet slab avalanches size 2.5 were reported on Tuesday from the Bear Pass area. I suspect that a natural avalanches cycle is ongoing today. Reports may be limited by poor visibility and travel conditions.

Storm slabs continue to develop above 1100 metres. These storm slabs are deep 30-60 cm, with much deeper areas where the wind has transported the snow. Below 1100 metres the snow is moist or wet. The overall results will be widespread touchy storm slabs at higher elevations and unstable wet snow at lower elevations. The storm snow is also stressing a weak interface from February composed of facets, crust, and surface hoar buried over a metre deep. Given the recent activity on this layer before the storm, it should be very reactive during this storm. The lower snowpack is strong, with the exception of basal facets in shallow snowpack areas around Bear Pass and Ningunsaw.