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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 7th, 2015–Jan 8th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Avalanche conditions are improving quickly but problems still exist.  Use extra caution on steep south facing slopes when the sun is out.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

A strong warm ridge of high pressure is the dominate feature for Thursday. Mostly sunny conditions are expected with alpine winds remaining light. Freezing levels should reach over 3000m with the warmest layer of air sitting around 2000m (+5 deg C or warmer). Conditions are expected to change on Friday. The warm air will break down and freezing levels should fall below 1000m by the end of the day. Alpine winds are expected to be moderate from the SW and it will be mostly cloudy. 2-4mm of light precipitation is expected Friday overnight. Saturday is forecast to be a mix of sun and cloud, and mostly dry. Freezing levels should remain below 1000m and alpine winds should be light.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive testing on Wednesday triggered only isolated pockets of storm snow. A natural cycle was reported on Monday and Tuesday.  Natural avalanches are not expected on Thursday expect possibly loose wet sluffing from steep terrain features.  Ski triggering is unlikely in areas that are capped with a supportive surface crust.

Snowpack Summary

Rain and warm air melted the snow surface at most elevations and cooling Tuesday overnight refroze the surface creating a supportive crust. Reports are suggesting the upper 30-40cm of the recent storm snow is/was moist or wet. Below this is dry storm snow that is less dense creating upside-down conditions but this is expected to settle out quickly with continued warm temperatures. The total storm slab is around 50-70cm thick and sits on a previously variable snow surface that included wind affected surfaces, a freezing rain crust or sun crust, and/or surface hoar or sugary facets in sheltered terrain. The bond between the storm slab and the layer below is reported to be gaining strength but may still be touchy in isolated areas. In the middle and lower snowpack we might find the mid-December surface hoar or crust/facet weak layers. These are now typically buried 1m or more. The old surface hoar layer may be found in sheltered shady areas at and below treeline, while the crust/facet layer is expected to be more widespread but also more variable.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Triggering storm slabs in not likely in areas that are capped with a surface crust.  Caution is still required in drier areas or where the crust is breakable.
Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Wet

If the snow surface is moist or wet, sluffing is expected from steep terrain features. Use extra caution on or below sunny slopes. A wet sluff has the potential to trigger a larger slab avalanche.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers down over 1m remain a concern. A smaller avalanche may step down to one of these layers or a heavy trigger like a cornice fall may be able to trigger one of these layers.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 6