Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 5th, 2016 9:08AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet, Cornices and Wind Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Watch for a wide range of conditions (and avalanche problems) as winter and spring weather patterns collide.

Summary

Confidence

High - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

On Wednesday, expect overcast skies and light flurries in the morning with clearing skies in the afternoon. The developing ridge of high pressure will ensure clear skies for Thursday and Friday as well. Ridgetop winds will be strong from the southwest on Wednesday morning, and then drop to light for the rest of the forecast period. Freezing levels will rise from 1500m to 3000m throughout the day on Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, the freezing level will hover between 3200m and 3700m.

Avalanche Summary

Although observations from the last few days were extremely limited, fresh wind slabs to size 1 were reported to have been triggered under light loads in high elevation terrain. With forecast warming and solar radiation, we'll see a transition to more spring-like avalanche problems. Loose wet avalanches, and large cornice falls are expected to occur throughout the forecast period

Snowpack Summary

Between 10-30cm of recent snowfall overlies a mix of hard crusts on high elevation solar aspects, settled dry snow in north-facing alpine terrain, and moist snow everywhere else. The recent snow has been shifted by strong southerly winds into fresh wind slabs in wind-exposed terrain. With forecast solar radiation and warm temperatures, most surfaces will transition to a daily melt-freeze cycle, while recently formed wind slabs will linger on high north-facing slopes. Below the new snow, the snowpack is generally strong and well-settled. Cornices are huge and will become weak with future warming and solar radiation.

Problems

Loose Wet

Rising freezing levels on Wednesday will promote loose wet avalanche activity, especially in steep sun-exposed terrain. Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Some cornices are the size of a bus. As temperatures rise and sunny weather makes a come-back, these monsters will become more likely to fail.

Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges. >Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Wind Slabs

Recently formed wind slabs are expected to gain strength relatively quickly. I'd still approach high elevation leeward slopes with caution as human triggering is still possible.

Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 6th, 2016 2:00PM