Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Wednesday

Thursday: Light snowfall in the morning with clearing expected by the afternoon. / winds moderate from the west / freezing level at surface Friday: mostly clear / light northwest winds / freezing level at surface Saturday: Mostly clear / light westerly winds / increasing cloud and rising freezing levels in the afternoon

A recent size 2.5 natural was observed on an alpine feature in the Duffey Lake area on Wednesday. No other avalanches have been reported, most likely because of poor visibility.

By thursday morning another 10-15cm of snow should have fallen adding to the 50cm of snow that fell in the past few days. These systems were accompanied by strong southwest winds. Add all of this to the 25-40cms that fell over last weekend that now sits on top of the previous cold, low density snow from the last week and you've got a great recipe for storm and wind slab development. A weak interface exists lower in the snowpack down 40-70cms. This interface consists of old decomposing snow crystals, preserved snow crystals (stellars), and facets (sugary crystals). Tests done on this interface are showing moderate to hard results, but sudden planar characteristics. This may be a layer to watch with more snow and wind forecast. The rain crust itself lies buried around 40-60cm below the surface at 1900m and below. The bond at this crust is reported to be quite good. On steep slopes, this interface, or the one above it, definitely has the potential to act as a good sliding surface. Weak layers lower in the snowpack have generally ceased to be of concern, except perhaps in very isolated, thin rocky areas.