Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 7th, 2015 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

A big change in avalanche hazard will occur on Tuesday as moderate snowfalls arrive with extreme SW winds. The Dec 4th weak layer will be primed for human triggering. Adjust your terrain choices accordingly.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Up to 20cm of new snow is expected through the day on Tuesday with strong to extreme SW winds. Temperatures will be mild with highs near -2 celsius in the Alpine and freezing levels near 1900m.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new was observed today, but visibility was limited.

Snowpack Summary

5 to10cm of new snow has fallen in the past 24 hours with strong SW winds and generally warm temperatures. Between 10 and 20cm of snow now covers the Dec 4th interface of surface hoar, sun crust and facets, and the bond at this interface appears poor. Thin wind slabs have formed in Alpine and Treeline areas on lee and cross-loaded features, and further wind slab development will continue as the storm is expected to bring more snow and strong/extreme winds over the next 24 to 48 hours. The snowpack remains supportive to skier traffic above approximately 1900m, but below this ski penetration is to ground. Current snow depths:Burstall = 74cmMud Lake = 62cm

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slab development is on-going and will continue through the night and on Tuesday. The Dec 4th interface of surface hoar, sun crust and facets will be ripe for triggering once there is a significant wind slab formed overtop this weak layer.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.>Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Loose Dry

New snow loads and strong winds will lead to sluffing in steep terrain at all elevations.

Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Dec 8th, 2015 2:00PM