Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 28th, 2012–Mar 29th, 2012

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Another system is forecast to push into the area later on Thursday with possibly as much as 20-25cm of new snow. Winds will be in the moderate to strong range so expect rapid slab development and a corresponding rise in avalanche danger.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Avalanche Summary

One Size 2 soft slab on East aspect in Ranger Creek drainage. Ran down to middle of run out zone. Fracture line in start zone appears 60cm, possibly deeper but could not see entire FL. Probable trigger was solar heating effects in rocky terrain above.

Snowpack Summary

Aster Lake region - snow surface moist to 2200m. Smith-Dorrien area - snow surface moist to treeline on solar aspects. Dry snow above with some redistribution by wind occurring.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs are present on lee features in alpine areas and wind exposed areas at treeline. These slabs sit on a variety of buried layers including crusts and surface hoar. The bond between the new snow and these layers is variable.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

Daytime heating on sun exposed slopes weakening surface layers. Unreactive while frozen but touchy under influence of full solar effects.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

The February surface hoar is buried 120-150cm at treeline. This interface has been strengthening and becoming harder to trigger, but shallow snowpack areas are still a concern. Cornices or smaller avalanches could step down to this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6