Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 4th, 2015–Jan 5th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

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Weather Forecast

Low pressure off the coast of Alaska will continue to bring a series of snow storms to the Interior. Precipitation amounts will be light today and will become moderate this evening into tonight. Winds are expected to stay light to moderate from the north switching to the south. Temperatures will stay in the -10 to -15 range until Monday.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of low density storm snow now covers recently formed wind slabs in exposed areas. The Dec 17th surface hoar layer is down 70-90cm sitting on top of a thick rain crust facet combo below 2100m and sitting on a settled mid-pack above. This layer is widespread and continues to be reactive to the load of a rider, especially at treeline.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday, in the highway corridor 3 natural avalanches, size 2 to 2.5. 2 days ago, there was a size 2 skier triggered avalanche on a north aspect at treeline on surface hoar buried 60cm.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Dec17th surface hoar is still reactive, particularly at treeline. As new snow continues to fall the consequences of an avalanche on this layer increase, careful decision making is still necessary.

Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Storm Slabs

Although powdery in most places, 25-35cm of new snow is gaining cohesion. Pockets of soft slabs will form near ridge crest where sufficient wind has gotten to it.

If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

30 cm of low density storm snow is likely to move fast in sufficiently steep terrain. Be aware of your sluff as it could pick up mass and push you around.

Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2