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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 19th, 2016–Nov 20th, 2016
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Glacier.

Expect early season hazards at all elevations and tricky travel below treeline. Give extra time at the end of the day for rocky ski outs!

Weather Forecast

A weak pacific frontal system arrives today spreading light precipitation to Rogers Pass with trace amounts of accumulation. Winds will be south 10-30 km/h. Freezing levels are expected to rise to 1600m this afternoon with an alpine high of -5.

Snowpack Summary

35-55cm of new snow covers a supportive crust (Nov 13) with a moist near-isothermal snowpack below. Previous winds have transported this new snow and formed reactive soft slabs in lee features at ridge top. Below 1900m snow depths are less than 50cm with many early season hazards (rocks, trees & open creeks!) lurking at or just below the surface.

Avalanche Summary

A natural cornice triggered avalanche, size 2.0, was reported yesterday off the shoulder of Video Peak in the Connaught Creek drainage.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent snow combined with moderate wind has created pockets of soft slab in lee features near ridges and rolls. This layer sits on a widespread crust down 40-60cm. Storm slabs triggered on this layer may entrain unconsolidated snow below and run far.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2