Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - South West.
An increase in the avalanche hazard can be expected above treeline where strong winds will have developed fresh but generally shallow wind slabs on steep lee slopes. In areas that received 6 or more inches of snow Friday night, most likely specific to the Paradise area, shallow loose wet avalanches will release as the sun comes out. Generally safe avalanche conditions will sum up the rest of the terrain in this zone.
Discussion
Snow and Avalanche Discussion
Friday's storm produced moderate to strong alpine winds but very little new snow below 6000' throughout the zone. We'll see if we can add some fresh snowfall above 5000' Friday night, but unfortunately, it's looking like only the Paradise area may pick up enough snow to improve travel conditions.
Prior to this storm, mild temperatures and sunny skies at the end of January did a number on the snow surface in the West Slopes South zone, leaving a crust of variable thickness on all aspects and at most elevations throughout the zone. Professionals in both the Crystal and White Pass areas on Thursday confirmed a lack of weak surface snow regardless of elevation or aspect.
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Snowpack Discussion
January, 31, 2019
As we turn the corner to February we're coming out of a week-long high pressure ridge and into unsettled weather. The snowpack survived extremely warm temperatures and sunny skies over the week with minimal new wet avalanche activity reported. This break in the weather allowed for avalanche danger to steadily decline in all regions. With stormy weather, the danger is once again elevated.
We’ve heard a variety of stories from backcountry travelers over the past week. There have been reports of extremely firm slopes creating slide-for-life conditions. Others reported perfect spring like snow. Some encountered difficult breakable crust. And, for a lucky few, softer, drier, mid-winter snow has been found. A common thread in most zones is where precipitation falls as snow, it likely will be landing on slick surfaces. It's time to pay attention to the new old interface formed by our most recent storm.
North-South:
While a high elevation rain event, around January 23rd, formed surface crust in many regions, it’s the constant melt-freeze cycles from the past week, that caused a divergence in the Northerly and Southerly snowpacks.
North: On shady slopes, things haven’t exactly been soft. The crust formed at the end of the last storm extends to high elevations (Mt. Hood 7000+ft, South Cascades 6500 ft, Passes and Central Cascades 6000 ft. and West-North 5500 ft.). Only areas in the East Cascades seemed to escape the wrath of this breakable crust. Without the help of the sun, shady slopes haven’t been softening even during this period of warm weather. Instead, the surface crust underwent some weakening. Observations found faceting on top of and below this crust. In some locations, this caused the crust to begin to degrade, becoming less supportive. Surface hoar has also been reported from the typical valley bottoms and sheltered terrain near water sources. At low to mid elevations, rain may have melted any weak snow on the surface. Slopes receiving significant dry snow should be suspect for a poor bond at the interface buried around February 1st.
South: On sunny aspects, the sun drove warming and melting of surface snow. Long, cool, winter nights allowed for the surface to freeze again. This repeating melt-freeze pattern created a thicker, firmer, and more supportable surface. On many days, weak surface snow, such as near surface facets or surface hoar, melted during the day limiting its development. On cooler days, very firm travel conditions were reported. Crusts may provide a poor bond for any snow falling on them.
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Near surface facets developed on shaded snow surfaces in many areas. These facets are from near Mt Baker. Photo: Lee Lazzara
East-West:It’s not uncommon for our east-side forecast zones to experience lingering persistent weak layers (PWL’s). This season, we’ve also seen several different PWL’s in our western zones. This break in the weather gave the snowpack time to gain strength in all zones.
West: While you may find some weak snow in the upper few inches of the snowpack, the mid and lower snowpack has been found to be quite strong. Firm rounded grains, stout  crust, and strong frozen melt-forms make up the majority of the snowpack at this time.
East: The east-side snowpack continues to be highly variable. You may find deep strong snowpacks closer to the crest or you could encounter shallow weak snowpacks areas further east. While there are number of potentially weak interfaces, there are two more common layers we’ve got our eyes on.
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January 22nd surface hoar and small facets. You can find these just under the recent storm snow, about a foot down. .
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December 26th surface hoar. This layer can be found from 16†to 40†down and is still producing clean, planar shears with tests.
You are most likely to find these layers to be preserved on wind sheltered, shady, and open slopes above 5,500ft. You can find more defined weak layers where snowpack is less than 4 feet deep and variable especially east of Highway 97. Persistent weak layers have been “dormant†or unreactive during the week of high pressure. The latest storm has not been enough to re-activate theses weak layers. We’ll keep tracking them to watch their progression..
The lower eastern slopes and the Columbia River. Snow exists at low elevations, but snowpack depths are shallow. Photo: Matt Primomo
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Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
If pushing above the most recent rain-line, approach steep unsupported slopes with wind-drifted snow cautiously, feeling for firm or hollow sounding snow as a sign that wind slabs may be present. You can stay safe by traveling on ridges, wind-scoured areas and any slope less than 35 degrees. Fresh winds slabs should generally be shallow, but may locally be large above treeline in the Paradise area.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Small loose wet avalanches are likely to release when the sun comes out. In areas that didn't receive more than 6" of new snow, this won't be an issue. Have your guard up around steep sunny slopes, especially near rocky terrain, and pay attention for rollerballs and pinwheels as a sign that small loose wet avalanches are becoming increasingly likely. Avoid terrain traps where even a small avalanche could cause harm.
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1