Avalanche Forecast

Good - -1

An approaching pacific frontal system will bring light -moderate precipitation to the region through Tuesday. Snow amounts 5-10cms. Ridgetop winds will be 35-55km/hr from the SW. Freezing levels may rise to 1000m. Wednesday: Snow amounts near 10cms. Ridgetop winds 45-55km/hr from the SW. Freezing levels could rise to 1850m then drop to valley bottom Thursday. Thursday: Snow amounts 5-10cms. Winds light from the SW. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom.

Over the past 48hrs a large natural cycle up to size 3.5 occurred. These avalanches ran on all aspects, and was evidence of a widespread storm cycle. Most operations proceeded with full avalanche control missions using explosives. They reported numerous large avalanches size 2-3.5 on N-NE aspects. I suspect that human triggering is likely out there creating large, destructive avalanches that may not be survivable. I would also avoid slopes with cornices overhead. They provide a substantial trigger that will very likely initiate a slide on the slope below.

The Purcell region has seen up to 140cms since the Christmas holiday. The new snow has settled into a cohesive slab, and the average total snowpack depth is near 200cms. The ridgetop winds have consistently blown from W-SW and have redistributed the storm snow into wind slabs. Wind slabs are widespread and found in exposed alpine and treeline locations. Even open areas below treeline are suspect for wind affected snow. In sheltered areas the snow surface is starting to form surface hoar crystals (feathery), and surface facets (sugary crystals). These crystals may create a weak layer in the snowpack once buried. Below the surface down 80-140cms lurks the mid-December surface hoar/ crust, facet layer. This is a layer of concern. It continues to be sensitive to the weight of a skier or sledder. The recent load of new snow has also awoken the basil weakness near the ground on north facing slopes. This mixed bag of weaknesses has made for a very tricky avalanche situation as evidenced by the numerous accidents in the area over the last few days.