Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Avalanche conditions will deteriorate on Tuesday. New storm and wind slabs may entrain significant amounts of recent snow, creating the potential for larger avalanches. Tuesday is a good day to avoid avalanche terrain.
Detailed Forecast
Avalanche conditions will deteriorate on Tuesday as stormy weather ramps up.
Fresh wind slabs will form Tuesday and will be very reactive. Fresh or recent wind slabs may produce large or even very large avalanches, entraining significant amounts of loose dry snow. Due to the strong winds accompanying heavier precipitation Tuesday, expect that wind deposited snow will be found well below ridgeline. Â
New storm snow snow will fall with a warming trend, forming generally shallow storm slabs by the end of the day on Tuesday. Storm snow weaknesses from the most recent storm cycle may re-awaken with additional snowfall, once again with the potential to become larger by entraining significant amounts of recent snow. Avoid large open slopes where avalanche may propagate more widely and become larger than you might anticipate. Tuesday is a good day to avoid avalanche terrain.
Tree wells and snow immersion are a significant concern in the Olympic area. Maintain communication with your partners as you travel.
Snowpack Discussion
Low density storm snow continues to accumulate in the Olympic area on Sunday night and Monday. Roughly 3 feet of snow rest above the most recent crust layer on sheltered slopes. The estimated 8" of snowdepth increase Sunday night through Monday has continued to add water weight to the snowpack in the form of lower density snowfall, which likely sits on storm snow weaknesses from Sunday's storm and wind slabs formed by strong southerly winds on lee slopes found near and above treeline.Â
Most recent observations show the recent storm snow bonding well to the 1/16 crust layer. Observations from this region are limited. A high degree of uncertainty exists in this area.
Observations
No recent observations
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1