Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 28th, 2018 4:43PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

mbender, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Heavy precipitation with an initially high freezing level will raise the avalanche danger to HIGH on Saturday.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Wet snow or rain, accumulation 15-25 cm in the alpine and 15-25mm rain at lower elevations / Strong west wind / Alpine temperature 0 CSATURDAY: Wet snow or rain, accumulation 20-30 cm snow in the alpine or 20-30 mm rain at lower elevations / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature 2 C / freezing level 1500-2000mSUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with sunny breaks / Light to moderate northwest wind / Alpine temperature -3 C / Freezing level 700 mMONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light west wind / Alpine temperature -2 C / Freezing level 600m

Avalanche Summary

Recent storm snow was reported to be reactive on Wednesday and Thursday. This MIN report indicates that storm slab properties and small avalanches were observed throughout their tour near Mt. Seymour. Similar observations were reported in other regions of the North Shore on Thursday.Expect avalanche activity to increase over the weekend, as an incoming storm will drop substantial snowfall with strong winds and increasing freezing levels.

Snowpack Summary

30-40 cm of recent snow at the highest elevations in the region may not be bonding well to underlying surfaces. This is particularly the case in the north of the region, where the snow may have fallen on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar. The latest storm Friday night into Saturday may have come in quite warm where precipitation is rain resulting in moist or wet surface snow.Deeper, about 60 cm of recent snow sits on a thick melt-freeze crust. Reports indicate that the snow is bonding well to the crust in certain areas but may be slower to bond in other areas.The middle and lower snowpack are well-settled. Snow depths increase substantially with higher elevations. Expect to find about 200 cm at treeline elevations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow may not bond well to the snowpack. Deeper in the storm snow, reports suggest that about 60 cm of snow may not be bonding well to an underlying hard crust.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

Rain at lower lower elevations will weaken the surface snow and increase the likelihood of triggering small loose wet avalanches in steep terrain.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Dec 29th, 2018 2:00PM