Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2018–Jan 1st, 2019

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Overall the snowpack structure is terrible (stiff layer over weak base). Backcountry travelers should remain vigilant in their terrain choices, and be patient for conditions to improve.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will be a mix of sun and cloud with highs near -12 Celsius. Winds will be light from the SW with moderate gusts. The next three days will see a very slow warming trend, with possibly light precipitation towards the end of the week.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new today.

Snowpack Summary

No new snow on this cold (-28) and sunny Monday, but up to 15cm fell over the weekend. Pockets of fresh wind slab are found at upper elevations in lee and cross-loaded terrain, but these slabs are not widespread in distribution. Forecasters continue to have low confidence in the snowpack with 50 to 60cm of medium to high density snow overlying a very weak base of up to 50cm of facets. This is the perfect combination for avalanches. Despite a lack of recent naturally triggered avalanches, there is strong potential for human triggering with the current snowpack structure. Unfortunately, this state of affairs will be with us for some time to come.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The basal layers are very weak. An avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack could step down to the bottom of the snowpack. Unfortunately, this situation is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Expect these in immediate lee areas. They will be most reactive to human triggering on steep rolls or unsupported terrain.

If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5