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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 4th, 2019–Jan 5th, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Lots of new snow and wind have upped the hazard significantly. Giving the snow atleast a day or two to settle would be wise if heading into steep treeline or alpine features. Avoid any exposure to overhead slopes, avalanches may reach valley bottom.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

The storm is expected to taper tonight. By tomorrow there will be mostly cloudy skies with a few early morning flurries. Alpine winds will continue to be in the moderate to high range. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow with a daytime high of -8 to -10.

Avalanche Summary

Only 1 sz2 slab was noted today on a north facing alpine area. Poor visibility prevented a good look around. It is safe to say that there is a widespread cycle ongoing in the alpine, with a specific cycle at treeline. Wind prone areas at treeline are suspect.

Snowpack Summary

As of this afternoon, the storm has left 25cm of settled snow at 2250m. This puts the total treeline snow depth to 120cm.  So far the winds haven't touched the lower treeline area, but the upper treeline and alpine areas have seen a fair bit of wind and widespread slabs. The deeper instabilities (Dec 10 and Oct 26) are very pronounced and basically make up the entire bottom third. The exact burial depth of this interface will vary depending on aspect (wind loading) and elevation. The trick with this snowpack will be identifying where there is a wind slab or not. Once the storm snow has "slabbed" up expect things to become very touchy. Avalanches stepping down and/or entraining loose snow are probable.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Cracking and whumpfing tell us these slabs are reactive to skiers. Use small terrain features to constantly evaluate the snowpack as you travel higher. Thin, transitional areas should be treated with caution.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The new snow load had not improved this layer. It is as delicate as ever. Do not underestimate its avalanche potential!
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3