Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - West.
A low danger is expected on Thursday. Watch for terrain hazards due to the low snowpack.
Detailed Forecast
An upper ridge will be over the Northwest on Friday. This will cause light winds, sunny weather and mild temperatures. Cooler east winds should be seen in the lower Cascade passes. Low clouds are likely in valleys east of the crest with some fog reaching Snoqualmie during the morning hours.
This weather will cause little change in overall stable snow conditions and a low avalanche danger.
The limited avalanche problem to watch for should be loose wet avalanches. Watch for wet snow deeper than a few inches or natural avalanches on steep solar slopes. But the likelihood and size will be listed as unlikely and small respectively.
Due to the low snowpack at lower elevations watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.
Snowpack Discussion
Last weekend a warm front caused high snow levels and rain. Most NWAC sites west of the crest had about 1-3 inches of rain. This caused loose wet avalanches, some possible wet slab avalanches and consolidation. West of the crest a lot of water was seen in and draining from the snow pack.
Mainly mild or sunny weather has been seen so far this week.
NWAC forecaster Dennis D'Amico found previous loose wet avalanches on Monday on this SE aspect at about 6500 feet in the Paradise Glacier Valley, possibly triggered by small cornice drops during the weekend rain event. Here are a couple of his photos.
The snowpack west of the crest should mainly consist of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1