Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 21st, 2023–Feb 22nd, 2023

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Over a metre of new snow, winds from every direction, and now an Arctic deep freeze; cautiously approach the backcountry, given all the recent changes that Mother Nature has thrown onto the slopes!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A natural cycle Tues AM, with the dramatic change in wind direction, saw numerous avalanches to sz 3-3.5, especially from S'ly aspects. This came after 2 consecutive days of artillery control, which produced good results to sz 4.

Skiers up Connaught reported all Cheops N paths (1 through 6) had run at least once today, along with Frequent Flyer in the AM.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 1m of snow has fallen in the last 3 days, accompanied by strong SW winds, creating a widespread reactive storm slab. Winds have now flipped to the NE and reverse loading is stacking wind slabs on S'ly aspects.

Several thin crusts are buried below the storm snow on steep solar aspects.

The deep persistent weakness at the base of the snowpack has been showing signs of strengthening recently.

Weather Summary

Here comes the Arctic air mass! Cold, heavy air is pushing south, bringing frigid temps and gusty NE'ly outflow winds until Saturday.

Tonight: cloudy, nil snow, Alp low -28*C, moderate E winds

Wed/Thurs: sun and cloud, Alp high -25*C, light/mod E winds

Terrain and Travel Advice

Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Up to a metre of storm snow, along with strong, variable winds, have left a widespread storm slab problem in the area. Watch for cracking in the snowpack and deeper slabs in wind loaded areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Gusty outflow winds from the N and E are reverse-loading slopes rapidly, creating a reactive wind slab where normally the terrain is stripped of snow.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Cornices

Cornices have grown rapidly with snowfall and winds. A sharp drop in temps may shock these large masses, creating fragile conditions with sudden failures. These large natural triggers could reactivate our basal deep persistent weak layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4