Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, Kananaskis, North 40, Spray - KLakes.
A disciplined approach will be required to address this snowpack, especially when snow and wind will arrive on Friday.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
One size 3 natural slab avalanche caused by a cornice failure occurred sometime in the last 24hours on a north aspect on Mt. Inflexible. Lower down in the path, it went to ground.
Snowpack Summary
A very thin crust exists just below the snow surface, but thankfully this crust disappears above 2000m. A buried layer of surface hoar down 15 to 30cm at tree line is tightening up but still producing shears. The main concern in the snowpack is the persistent moderate to hard shears failing down 70 to 80cm in the mid-November facets. The lower half of the snowpack remains very weak, and any avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack will likely step down to the lower weaknesses. Thin and rocky areas are of particular concern for triggering the deeper weak layers. Below 2100m the snowpack does not support the weight of a skier if you leave an established skin track.Friday
Conditions will likely deteriorate with the forecasted snow and winds. Stay tuned.......
Weather Summary
Thursday will be a mix of sun and cloud with a high temperature of -2c in the alpine. Expect strong winds out of the NW.Friday
Cooling trend during Friday to get you ready for the polar vortex, that's right some cold coming to the mountains.
Expect up to 10-15cm of SNOW and moderate NW winds.
SaturdayCold with daytime highs of -23c.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Snowpack tests continue to indicate that human triggering of the deeper weak layers is a real possibility. Shallow rocky areas are particularly susceptible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Persistent Slabs
If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to step down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack. Pay close attention at treeline where this layer is more commonly found.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2