Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

A series of frontal systems will affect the region over the next several days bringing periods of moderate to heavy precipitation and very strong winds. Monday: 10-15cm of snow. Very strong S-SW winds. Freezing level (FL) rising to around 1000m. Tuesday: 5-10cm. Moderate to strong SW winds. FL around 800m. Wednesday: 10-15cm. Strong SW winds. FL rising to 1500m.

No new avalanches have been reported. Any information (professional or recreational) from the field is highly appreciated. Please send your observations to forecaster@avalanche.ca.

Over the past week the Hankin/ Hudson Bay area received up to 40cms of new snow accompanied by strong southwest winds. Storm slabs and wind slabs have formed and may be susceptible to human triggering. There is now around 55-70cms of snow sitting on a surface hoar/crust/facet combo which is the result of the early December dry spell. This crust is widespread and exists in most start zones up to 2000m. Facets can reportedly be found above or below the crust. Prior to being buried, the surface hoar was destroyed by high winds in the alpine, but still coexists with the crust at treeline and below. What is the tipping point of this weak interface? In areas where this interface has reached its threshold, natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 have occurred. If they have yet to happen, I suspect they are gaining some strength but would still react to a rider trigger, especially in steeper, unsupported terrain features. In short, the upper snowpack is variable and deserves caution. It will also see increased load with forecast wind and snow. Beneath this the midpack is well settled and strong.