Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Unsettled conditions bringing light precipitation amounts will persist through the weekend. Overnight Sunday an intense, direct frontal system will slam the North Coast bringing moderate precipitation amounts and rising freezing levels to Inland Regions.Sunday: Freezing levels rising to 1200 m and expecting 10 mm. Ridgetop winds strong from the south. Monday: Freezing levels rising to 1800 m and expecting up to 20 mm. Ridgetop winds strong from the south gusting to extreme values. Tuesday: Freezing levels falling to 1100 m or lower. Precipitation amounts 10 mm. Ridgetop winds moderate from the south.

No recent avalanche activity has been reported. Last Tuesday a steep rocky NE facing feature at 1900m released naturally resulting in a size 3 avalanche. The possibility for large avalanches appears to be still there, and the chance of one is likely to increase with anticipated warming, and/ or localized new loads including precipitation and strong winds on Monday.

Up to 20 cm new snow recently fell onto a variety of old snow surfaces consisting of surface hoar, small grained facets and melt freeze crusts. A poor bond likely exists.Previous snow that fell between March 27-30th fell on top of a variety of old snow surfaces. I suspect the ongoing melt freeze cycles have largely healed any instabilities associated with this interface. Below treeline a spring-like snowpack exists including melt-freeze crusts and possibly isothermal conditions. Two persistent weak interfaces exist deeper in the snowpack. The early March layer can be found down 75 - 100cm and is composed of facets/surface hoar on shady aspects and facets/crust on southerly aspects. The early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is down 150 - 200cm. While it's been mostly dormant, I would not rule out the possibility of it reawakening if we see prolonged warming and/or intense sunshine.