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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 2nd, 2021–Feb 3rd, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

The winds finally arrived and have spiked the avalanche danger, reloading avalanche paths that released early in the storm.

I'd recommend the ski hill today. Limit your exposure to any overhead exposure.

Weather Forecast

Storm front will pass this morning, bringing cooler temps, gusty winds, and flurries.

Today: Cloudy/flurries, 5cm, FZL 1500m, mod gusting strong SW winds

Tonight: Cloudy/flurries, 10cm, FZL valley bottom, Alp low -11*C, light N winds

Wed: Isolated flurries, FZL 500m, Alp high -11*C, light/mod W winds

Thurs: Flurries, 10cm, FZL 800m, mod W winds

Snowpack Summary

A heavy, 40-50cm storm slab sits atop the previous drought layer (surface facets, surface hoar, wind affect, and sun crust). Overnight winds are rapidly building these into touchy slabs at all elevations. Previously dormant layers deeper in the snowpack (surface hoar/crust) may be waking up with the sudden heavy burden.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery control overnight produced numerous avalanches to sz 4. A natural avalanche cycle is currently flushing numerous avalanches up to sz 4 in the highway corridor, some within the same paths that were controlled 6hrs ago.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

40-50cm of storm snow, warm temps, and winds that have finally arrived are building touchy storm slabs on the previous drought layer. Natural avalanches are showing the new storm slab is not bonding well to it.

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Dry

Expect loose dry avalanches in steep terrain. The underlying facets will allow for a greater snow mass to accumulate and flow fast and far.

  • If triggered dry loose point releases can form deeper deposits in terrain traps.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3