Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 2-5 cm, moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level near 1000 m.TUESDAY: Partly cloudy with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 1-3 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level near 800 m.WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 2-5 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level near 1300 m.

On Saturday, small wind slabs were released by skiers and explosives on northerly lee slopes at treeline and in the alpine.  One slab avalanche occurred on the early-January weak layer on a northerly aspect, 60 cm deep.On Friday, there were several reports of small to large (size 1 to 2.5) storm slab, wind slab, and persistent slab avalanches, triggered naturally, by skiers, and by explosives.  Similar avalanches were reported on Wednesday and Thursday.  These avalanches have been releasing on all three persistent weak layers described in the Snowpack Discussion.

The current snowpack is complex, with three active weak layers that we are monitoring.20-50 cm of storm snow now sits on a newly formed crust and/or surface hoar layer (mid-January). Prior to the storm, the crust was reportedly widespread, except for possibly at high elevations on north aspects. The surface hoar is 10 to 30 mm in size and is at all elevations. The recent snow fell with strong southerly winds, producing wind slabs and cornices in lee features.  Deeper in the snowpack, a persistent weak layer known as the early-January layer is buried 40 to 80 cm, present at all elevation bands, and composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes and sun crust on steep solar aspects. Recent snowpack tests have shown sudden fracture characters with moderate loads and high propagation potential, as well as other signs of instability such as whumpfs and cracking. Yet another persistent weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 60 to 110 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line. This layer is not thought to be present in the alpine.A rain crust buried in November is 90 to 150 cm deep and is likely dormant for the time being.