Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 24th, 2018–Jan 25th, 2018

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

New snow and wind are creating deeper and increasingly destructive storm slabs ripe for human triggering. Sticking to simple terrain would be a great way to manage the elevated hazard on Thursday.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 15-30cm of new snow / Strong to extreme southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1000m.THURSDAY: 10-20cm of new snow / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level dropping to around 600m.FRIDAY: 5-10cm of new snow / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 600m.SATURDAY: 5-10 cm of new snow / Light to moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 600m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported, but that may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. Looking forward, forecast snow and wind will promote ongoing storm slab avalanche activity, especially in higher elevation, lee terrain.

Snowpack Summary

In recent days the region was pummeled by heavy precipitation with the rain line hovering around 800m. 20cm of new snow is being redistributed by moderate southerly ridgetop winds. The reactivity of the new storm slabs is likely to vary greatly depending on elevation/ temperature and orientation to wind. In general, I would expect the touchiest conditions to exist in exposed, higher elevation terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast new snow and wind on Wednesday night are expected to continue to create touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.The new snow will need time to settle and stabilize.Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and time of day.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Cornices

Large amounts of recent new snow and high winds are creating rapid cornice growth.

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5