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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 6th, 2016–Dec 7th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Be cautious in alpine and tree-line elevations where winds have stiffened the surface into a slab.

Weather Forecast

Cold, calm, and a mix of sun with cloud for the next few days. The Arctic ridge has pushed into the region and dropped temp's to -20*C in the alpine. The next bit of snow is forecasted to arrive late Thursday with temp's warming slightly.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack tests from yesterday up at Hermit and Fidelity found several weak layers within the 70-80cm of new storm snow producing mod to hard results. Old wind slab layers below the storm snow did react with hard results. The Nov 13 crust, down a metre is still not reacting to the new load in most tests.

Avalanche Summary

Several size 2 to 3 natural avalanches were observed from steep alpine terrain yesterday (Mt Macdonald, Camp West, Railroad Gunners). Most natural activity has tapered off with the cold temp's and calm winds, but this past weekend, widespread storm slabs were failing 50cm thick and running to near valley-bottom.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Human triggered avalanches are likely in the new storm slab, which also sit on previous wind slabs. Combined, these two slabs could step down to the Nov 13 Crust, triggering a persistent slab. 
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Dry

Sluffs have the potential to push a rider into a tree well or other terrain traps. With the recent arrival of 80cm of loose dry snow, sluff management will be essential for safe travel. Watch for others above and below you.
Watch for terrain traps where small amounts of snow will acumulate into deep deposits.Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2