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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 26th, 2014–Nov 27th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Avalanche danger will increase as the forecast storm hits us. If freezing levels rise, danger will rise rapidly. Stick to low angled slopes and avoid overhead exposure.

Weather Forecast

A warm front will bring warm temperatures and moderate to heavy precipitation today and tomorrow.  Up to 20cm of new snow is expected by Thursday morning and another 15-25 cm on Thursday. It is possible that freezing levels will spike today, potentially resulting in rain up to treeline. Moderate SW winds will increase loading.

Snowpack Summary

Two layers of concern, the Nov 21 surface hoar/sun crust layer down ~75 and Nov 9 rain crust down ~100cm, are becoming reactive as the load on top of them increases. Snowpack tests in two locations, a south aspect and a north aspect, showed that these layers may be triggered by skiers and if triggered are likely to propagate into large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural avalanches were observed yesterday. Up the Connaught drainage avalanches to size 2.5 were observed from the paths off of Mt Cheops. Cheops North bowl ran into the creek. Along the highway avalanches were observed from all aspects running well into the avalanche run-out zones. Most were size 2, but there were two size 3's.

Confidence

Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Continued snowfall is adding to the storm slab sitting on touchy layers. There continue to be reports of whumphing and tests yesterday confirm these layers can be triggered by skiers. These will become increasingly reactive as the load increases.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Loose avalanches are possible on steep sheltered slopes and gullies. Be cautious in these areas, where a bit of sluffing snow can quickly gain mass.
Watch for terrain traps where small amounts of snow will acumulate into deep deposits.Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Recent and forecast winds from the south will load lee slopes and form cohesive slabs. Wind loading will also trigger natural avalanches. Avoid exposure to steep paths that are being rapidly loaded, such as the Cheops North paths.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2