Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.
Chris Gooliaff,
Incremental loading on a sugary weak layer can add up to a touchy slab at Alpine and Treeline elevations.
Tree wells and terrain traps are real concerns with all the loose snow.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Moisture from the Pacific is mixing with the cold air from the north, creating low density powder.
Tonight: Cloudy, trace snow, low -16*C, mod SW winds
Tues: Cloudy with mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -14*C, light S wind
Wed: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -15*C, light SW winds
Thurs: Flurries, 12cm, Alp high -11*C, light S winds
Snowpack Summary
A new storm slab of ~30cm low-density snow is bonding poorly to the underlying loose, faceted snow from the recent cold temps. Wind slab exists in the alpine along ridge crests and open features down into tree line. The Dec 1 crust is buried 80-130cm, with faceted snow above and below it (especially in shallow areas).
Avalanche Summary
Numerous avalanches off of the steep paths of Mt. Tupper and Mt. MacDonald, up to size 3 from wind loaded, steep, confined terrain.
There is a LOT of loose snow to be transported by the wind! If wind values spike, expect a natural avalanche cycle.
Confidence
Problems
Storm Slabs
The snow is adding up and forming a storm slab over a faceted interface, which will take some time to bond. Deeper pockets of slab are found in loaded features. If triggered this layer may step down to the Dec 1 crust, resulting in a large avalanche.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
~30cm of low density snow sits on a layer of faceted snow. This layer is easily triggered at the moment and dry loose avalanches, though light and fluffy, can run fast and far, gathering additional mass as it travels.
- Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.
- Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 4th, 2022 4:00PM
