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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2022–Jan 4th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Incremental loading on a sugary weak layer can add up to a touchy slab at Alpine and Treeline elevations.

Tree wells and terrain traps are real concerns with all the loose snow.

Weather Forecast

Moisture from the Pacific is mixing with the cold air from the north, creating low density powder.

Tonight: Cloudy, trace snow, low -16*C, mod SW winds

Tues: Cloudy with mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -14*C, light S wind

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -15*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Flurries, 12cm, Alp high -11*C, light S winds

Snowpack Summary

A new storm slab of ~30cm low-density snow is bonding poorly to the underlying loose, faceted snow from the recent cold temps. Wind slab exists in the alpine along ridge crests and open features down into tree line. The Dec 1 crust is buried 80-130cm, with faceted snow above and below it (especially in shallow areas).

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches off of the steep paths of Mt. Tupper and Mt. MacDonald, up to size 3 from wind loaded, steep, confined terrain.

There is a LOT of loose snow to be transported by the wind! If wind values spike, expect a natural avalanche cycle.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The snow is adding up and forming a storm slab over a faceted interface, which will take some time to bond. Deeper pockets of slab are found in loaded features. If triggered this layer may step down to the Dec 1 crust, resulting in a large avalanche.

  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

~30cm of low density snow sits on a layer of faceted snow. This layer is easily triggered at the moment and dry loose avalanches, though light and fluffy, can run fast and far, gathering additional mass as it travels.

  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.
  • Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2