Avalanche Forecast

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

A combination of two systems, one from the coast of Washington State and the other from the Gulf of Alaska, will spread precipitation to the South Coast ranges.

Tuesday night: A mix of snow, rain and freezing rain, 30 to 40 cm, strong to extreme southewesterly winds, low treeline temperatures near -1 C with freezing level around 600 m and a weak temperature inversion.

Wednesday: Snow and rain mixed, heavy at times, 30 to 35 cm, strong to extreme southwesterly winds, high treeline temperatures around 0 C with freezing level at 1200 m.

Thursday: Flurries, 5 cm, moderate westerly winds, high treeline temperatures near -5 C with freezing level going down from 500 m to 300 m.

Friday: Flurries, 5 cm, light southerly winds, high treeline temperatures near -5 C with freezing level at 500 m.

Although avalanche activity has momentarily tappered off on Monday and Tuesday, new storm snow and strong southwesterly winds will lead to another natural avalanche cycle on Wednesday. Storm slabs avalanches have the potential to step-down to recently reactive buried weak layers, with the potential to produce very large, destructive avalanches. Cornices may also reach their breaking point, triggering persistent slab avalanches on slopes below. Over the last few days, we received reports of large (size 2-3) avalanches from neighbouring Sea-to-Sky region that released on a persistent weak layer on northeast, northwest, southwest aspects between 1500-2100 m. 

The ongoing storm have the potential to add 60 to 75 cm to the 30 to 40 cm layer of settling snow from last weekend's storm. All this new snow sits on a variety of snow surfaces, hard wind-scoured surfaces, preserved powder, and possible surface hoar in sheltered areas. Strong southerly winds will continue to redistribute the storm snow into dense wind slabs on leeward terrain features.

In the north of the region, a concerning layer of facets (sugary snow) can be found down 100-200cm over a crust that formed in early December. This layer seems particularly reactive in thinner snowpack areas near ridge tops, where the facets are more developed and where the crust layers are more accessible to the weight of a person or machine. Large size 2 and 3 avalanches on this persistent slab problem have been reported daily over the past few days in the neighbouring Sea-to-Sky region. This problem is particularly hard to predict and tricky to manage. Given the rapid load from the ongoing storm and wind, this persistent slab problem requires to scale back, adopt a conservative approach and avoid avalanche terrain. Get more details and photos in our forecaster blog. 

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
• The trees are not the safe-haven they normally are at this time. Terrain at treeline is primed for human triggered avalanches.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.