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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 5th, 2020–Feb 7th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: North Rockies.

Recent new snow and strong winds blowing from a variety of directions continue to build slabs at higher elevations. Some parts of the region have received up to 40 cm of new snow over the past few days.

Confidence

Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday Night: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. Alpine high temperature around -6 C. Moderate to strong northwest wind.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with some sunny breaks. Alpine high temperature around -6 C. Moderate northwest wind.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks. Alpine high temperature around -7 C. Light to moderate west and northwest wind.

Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high temperature around -8 C. Moderate northwest wind.

Avalanche Summary

We are aware of an avalanche that occurred Sunday Feb 2 in the Upper Burnt area that is presumed to involve a snowmobiler. Preliminary information indicates that avalanche was a size 2.5 on a southeast aspect at 1600 m with a fracture line depth of 130 cm.

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 15-40 cm of new snow has fallen in the past two days throughout the region. This may now have obscure previous wind effect in exposed terrain an may be sitting on a rain crust that formed last weekend below 1600m approximately. 

In the mid-pack there may still be a layer of surface hoar buried in late December. It's gaining strength, but may remain a concern. The warm wet storm on Feb 01 will have tested this layer in the short-term and will improve it in the longer-term; however, we're awaiting evidence before considering it dormant. This layer is found across much of the North Rockies region but our focus is around McBride and the McGregors/Torpy.

Terrain and Travel

  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent new snow and strong winds blowing from a variety of directions continue to build slabs at higher elevations in the lee of terrain features. Similarly CORNICES continue to grow, as does concern for overhead hazard because of them. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A weak layer of buried surface hoar may be found in parts of the region. There is uncertainty on where this layer is a problem, but it appears to be of highest concern in sheltered terrain features near treeline.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3