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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 22nd, 2021–Mar 23rd, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Carefully evaluate steep slopes where recent snow could still produce avalanches, especially in wind affected terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, light northwest wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures drop to -5 C. 

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 20-30 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures around -3 C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing roughly 20 cm of snow throughout the day, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level climbs to 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -1 C.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny, light northeast wind, freezing level climbing to 1300 m with treeline temperatures near 0 C.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread storm slab avalanche activity was reported on Sunday, and preliminary reports from Monday suggest they were still reactive to human triggering. On Sunday numerous size 1-2 natural slab avalanches were observed in the North Shore mountains. These avalanches were mostly 20-30 cm thick and ran on a crust layer. On Monday there were some reports of size 1.5-2 human triggered avalanches in the Seymour backcountry (30-60 cm thick). See the photos here and here. These slabs should be less reactive by Tuesday, but may still be possible to trigger in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

35-45 cm of snow from Sunday is settling and strengthening, but could still be unstable on some steep and wind affected slopes. Reports suggest the new snow was poorly bonded to a crust on Sunday, but this should improve quickly. Along ridgelines, cornices are large and always have the potential of failing or being triggered from the weight of a human.

Terrain and Travel

  • Exercise caution on steep, unsupported slopes.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent snow is strengthening, but the reactivity of storm slabs should still be assessed before approaching steep open terrain. North and east facing slopes are most suspect due to gusty winds from the south and west.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2

Cornices

Cornices are large and looming along many ridgelines, and have likely grown with the recent snow and wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3