Avalanche Forecast

On Saturday, light snow is forecast above about 1600 m, with light to moderate SW winds. A cold front arriving on Sunday brings 10-15 cm snow, with the freezing level falling to around 1200 m by afternoon. Clouds and a few showers may linger on Monday morning, before skies start to clear.

No new avalanches have been reported. On Tuesday, explosives triggered a size 3 wet slab avalanche in the Duffey Lake area. The avalanche released at ground on a NW aspect at 2200 m and ran to valley bottom. A MIN report from Monday describes a close call with a size 2.5 wet slab avalanche on a NE aspect in the alpine on Hour Peak on the McBride Range traverse. A skier triggered the large avalanche that released down 30 cm on an old melt-freeze crust and propagated a fracture about 50 m wide. Most commercial operations in the region have finished their season and information is becoming sparse.

As temperatures gradually cool through the weekend, loose wet and wet slab avalanches will become less likely. Storm slabs may develop as the cold front passes through. At this time of year, monitoring the overnight freeze of the snow surface is very important. If the snow surface does not freeze overnight or if the crust is only a few cm thick, the effect of daytime heating or rain will weaken the snowpack much more quickly than it would if there is a well frozen thick crust. Low elevation and thin snowpack areas have become isothermal.