Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 9th, 2016–Mar 10th, 2016

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

A "weather bomb" will drive avalanche danger to HIGH on Thursday. It might be a good time to hunker down and wait out the storm. If you are heading out, stick to simple or non-avalanche terrain.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Avalanche Summary

Expect a widespread natural avalanche cycle throughout the day on Thursday in response to rapid loading from snow and wind. We could see numerous size 2-3 storm and wind slabs, with the potential for even large slides stepping down the the early February surface hoar layer. It will be a day to wait out the storm from a safe place.

Snowpack Summary

The current snow surface consists of soft wind slabs in exposed lee terrain, dry lower density snow in sheltered terrain, and some places have mentioned small surface hoar forming overnight on Tuesday. Forecast heavy snowfall, warming, and very strong winds will rapidly create fresh storm slabs everywhere, and deep wind slabs in exposed lee terrain for Thursday. Some areas could see 50-80 cm in a 24 hour period! This intense loading could overload a weak layer of surface hoar buried at the beginning of February, and currently about 70-80 cm below the surface. This layer is primarily a concern in the South Chilcotin Mountains. Expect a widespread and large natural avalanche cycle during the storm. Ongoing stormy weather has also encouraged extensive cornice growth.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

It's going to be a stormy and ugly day on Thursday! Your best bet is to avoid all avalanche terrain during the storm, then give the new snow a couple days to settle and strengthen before pushing out.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Cornices

We should see some pretty significant cornice growth during this next storm. It could be enough to have large chunks pop off naturally, potentially triggering deep wind slabs below.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating. >Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5