Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 24th, 2015 9:10AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

The snowpack has been rain-soaked at most elevations, while new wind slabs exist at ridge top. Pay close attention to conditions that change with elevation.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud is forecast for Sunday and Monday as a weak ridge pushes a pacific moisture stream to the north of the region. On Tuesday the region is forecast to receive up to 15cm of snow. Ridgetop winds are forecast to remain strong and southwesterly on Sunday and Monday, and then drop to moderate values on Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to hover around 3000m on Sunday and Monday, and then drop to about 1500m on Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

At the time of publishing this bulletin, observations were extremely limited. That said, I'm sure recent rain sparked a round of loose wet avalanche activity, while wind slabs may have been triggered at higher elevations. Although unlikely, deep persistent avalanches are still a concern as long as the snowpack is wet or moist. Any activity on these deeper weaknesses would be very destructive in nature.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm of settled storm snow has now been saturated by rain up to about 2000m. At the highest elevations, moist snowfall throughout Saturday was likely shifted into wind slabs in lee terrain. New cornice development has also been noted. The older storm snow overlies a hard crust and/or surface hoar layer which formed in January. The bond at this interface will be variable and largely elevation dependant, as rain may have penetrated the snowpack enough to dissolve the crust in some areas.Although unlikely to trigger, deeper snowpack weaknesses are still on our radar, especially in areas where the snowpack is rain-soaked.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Snowfall and extreme southwest winds have created new wind slabs above 2150m. Watch for triggering in the lee of ridgecrests and in gullies.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Loose Wet

Pushy loose wet avalanches remain a concern in steep terrain where the snowpack was saturated by heavy rain. Rain-soaked snow may also increase the chances of destructive wet slab activity.

Avoid slopes with glide cracks.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 25th, 2015 2:00PM