Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

5-15 cm of snow is expected for Saturday, another 10-20 cm by Sunday morning, 5-15 cm throughout the day on Sunday and 5-20 cm overnight into the day Monday, with the heaviest snow amounts expected for the southern coastal parts of the region.  Freezing levels are expected to remain around 1200 m for the forecast period, and strong southwesterly alpine winds are expected to accompany the most intense snowfall periods.

Several natural storm slab avalanches up to Size 3 were reported on Thursday. Many of them occurred on Wednesday. Storm and wind slabs were also highly reactive to human triggers on Thursday with several skier-controlled avalanches up to Size 1.5 running on a buried crust.

30-50 cm of recent heavy storm snow and thicker wind slabs are poorly bonded to crusts and other slippery previous snow surfaces. A hard crust with weak facets, buried early March, may be lurking over a metre down. This condition seems more specific to the northern parts of the region. Although reports suggest this persistent weakness has gained significant strength, I'd be wary of the possibility of isolated large avalanches on steep, unsupported slopes, especially if temperatures increase, or if solar radiation is strong. On sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations, the snowpack is likely in a spring melt-freeze cycle. The mid-pack is generally well-settled and strong. At the base of the snowpack, weak facets may be found, particularly on shallow alpine slopes in the north of the region.