Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 27th, 2024 2:30PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada Mikey, Avalanche Canada

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Avoid avalanche terrain as natural avalanche cycle is expected.

THE CANMORE HILL FROM THE NORDIC CENTRE TO GOAT CREEK PARKING LOT WILL BE CLOSED AT 1PM ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 28 FOR AVALANCHE CONTROL.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several loose dry avalanches up to size 1 have been observed. Some wind slab avalanches have also been observed up to size 2 in both steep terrain and at treeline. This next storm will likely start a natural cycle.

Snowpack Summary

There is a lot going on in the snowpack now with all the new snow. 25cm of snow has fallen in this last storm and has become a wind slab in all exposed areas. Another 10cm is forecast to fall on Wednesday, again with strong SW winds. This is simply creating more wind slabs on the surface which are now sitting on a variety of interfaces:

  1. The February 24 storm interface which is down about 20-30cm and consists of suncrust and previous wind slabs. This layer will be sensitive to skier triggering.

  2. The February 3 Rain crust which is down about 40-50cm. This crust has started to break down in many places with facets showing up near the crust- the perfect sliding layer. There is a strong likelihood that any avalanche triggered in the upper snowpack will also step down to this layer.

  3. The November basal facets are alive and well and have come back on our radar as the February 2 rain crust is deteriorating and not locking in the weaknesses below as it once did. Skier weight has now been able to break through the Feb 2 rain crust in some places, which means that the basal facets can now be more easily affected.

    On top of all of this, we also have a loose dry avalanche problem.

Weather Summary

The next storm is set to begin on Wednesday bringing 10cm of snow by the end of the ski day. This storm is expected to bring a total of 20-30cm of snow by Friday morning, along with 70-90km/hr winds from the SW.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Avoid traveling in runout zones. Avalanches have the potential to run to the valley floor.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

This wind slab is sitting on the Feb. 24 interface down 20-30cm and consists of facets and previous wind slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

This is the Feb 3 rain crust interface which is starting to break down and has facets near this interface and can be found 40-50cm down.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

This is the November basal facet problem that exists mostly in the high alpine where either the Feb 2 rain crust does not exist or has started to break down.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Feb 28th, 2024 4:00PM

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