Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
In specific areas, where the most recent storm snow is more cohesive, small human-triggered slab avalanches will be possible. Before committing to a slope, think about the consequences of the terrain if even a small avalanche occurred. Small loose wet avalanches should be less likely Thursday, but will still be possible on direct, steep, solar aspects.
Detailed Forecast
In general, the most recent storm snow overlying recently buried weak layers is lacking widespread cohesion to be deemed likely to trigger. In specific areas, where the storm snow is more cohesive, small human-triggered slab avalanches will be possible. Before committing to a slope, think about the consequences of the terrain if even a small avalanche occurred. Note density changes in the upper snowpack throughout the day and as you change aspect and elevation. Â
Small loose wet avalanches should be less likely Thursday, but will still be possible on direct, steep, solar aspects.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Fair weather was seen for almost a week around the New Year. This weather should have caused consolidation and stabilizing of snow from December at Hurricane.
NWAC pro observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge on New Years Day in warmer weather and found 1-2 inch sun crusts on south slopes and sastrugi and small building wind slab on north slopes. But he did not see any failures in snow pit tests. Some surface hoar was being preserved in some shaded sheltered areas. Cornices had become more isolated.
A skier on Turns All Year also reported settled stable powder on north slopes on New Years Day.
Fair weather continued Sunday and Monday at Hurricane, while around 6 inches of snow accumulated at the NRCS snotel Tuesday through Wednesday morning before a clearing trend ensued later in the day.Â
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1