Avalanche Forecast

Stormy weather continues through the weekend with a strong warm, wet and windy double punch for Friday and Saturday

Thursday night: Periods of snow, with 2-10cm accumulation, light to moderate northwest wind, alpine low-2C, freezing level 700m.

Friday: Heavy snow increasing throughout the day with accumulations of 40-60cm new snow (40-60mm rain). Initially freezing levels will be around 800m but will rise during the day to 1700m. Moderate to strong south winds, alpine high +3C. A significant frontal system is forecast to pass through the North Shore mountains Friday afternoon bringing extreme Southwesterly winds, heavy bands of precipitation and rapidly rising freezing levels.

Saturday: Heavy snow (& rain) with accumulation of 50-100cm snow (50-100mm rain), moderate to extreme south ridgetop winds, alpine low -3C & alpine high +2C, freezing level initially 1200m but rising to 2500m.

Sunday: Cloudy with scattered flurries (& rain), accumulation trace to 5cm, strong west winds gusting extreme at ridgetop, alpine low -1C & alpine high +6C, freezing level rising to 2400m.

Limited observations from Thursday have been reported, however natural human triggered avalanches are likely with the recent strong to extreme southwesterly winds and new snow. This MIN from nearby to Seymour paints a picture of rapid loading. Prior storms this week have largely delivered a mix of rain and snow to the north shore ski hills due to high freezing levels. Interior regions have seen massive daily snowfall amounts of up to 50cm a day, which has certainly resulted in avalanches. 

Friday's storm is forecast to start cool before it warms up delivering some of the forecast precipitation as snow then rain adjacent to the local ski hills. Heightened avalanche conditions will persist as heavy amounts of snow and rain fall throughout the weekend wherever this new precipitation falls onto snow in steep terrain. In areas where snow becomes wet and rain soaked be on the look out for loose snow avalanches and wet slides being triggered on buried crusts.  

Have you been out and about in the mountains? If so please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN). It doesn't have to be technical - photos are especially helpful! Thank you so much for all the great MINs submitted so far!

Wet and stormy weather continues to bring a mix of rain and snow to the North Shore mountains. Above the freezing line, storm after storm continues to deliver heavy amounts of snow. Below this freezing line there's likely not much snow left after heavy rains. Avalanche hazard will be elevated anywhere snow is falling and accumulating on yesterday's snow, especially if total new snow is deeper than about 30cm (or reaching from your fingers to your elbow when you poke around).  

New snow will arrive with moderate to extreme winds further elevating avalanche hazard. There are a few melt freeze crusts that we are watching that have shown up as weak layers in test pits.  

We have very little data and a lot of uncertainty around alpine conditions in the region. If you go out in the mountains, please let us know what you see via the Mountain Information Network (MIN). 

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
• As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
• Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.