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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2020–Jan 3rd, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Natural avalanches have tapered off in the last 12 hours; however, human triggered avalanches remain likely. Avalanches were running full path yesterday, and could easily do the same today!

Weather Forecast

A brief reprieve from the recent onslaught of precipitation today; however, the heavy precipitation has been replaced by strong Southerly winds. Expect cooler temperatures today, and a mix of sun and cloud. Tomorrow a upper level warm front passes over Rogers Pass depositing another 20cm, strong to extreme wind and rising temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

50-70cm of storm snow now sits on the Dec 27th surface hoar. Strong S-SW winds are redistributing the storm snow on lee features in the Alpine and exposed areas of Treeline. The mid and lower snowpack has been settling and gaining strength; however, the Dec 11th surface hoar (5-12mm) still persists down 120-160cm.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread natural and Artillery triggered avalanche cycle yesterday up to size 3.5, all aspects and elevations. Numerous Naturals observed in the Highway Corridor (limited observations, due to poor visibility). 70 Artillery rounds fired, with good results. Some paths ran sympathetically to size 3.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

At Treeline we have received 50cm+ of storm snow in the last 36 hours! Winds increased in the overnight period to strong out of the south, but temperatures are cooling. Natural activity has decreased, but human triggering remains likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Storm slabs have the potential to step down to our Persistent Weak Layer problems (December 11th and 27th Surface Hoar). The 27th is buried by our most recent storm snow and the Dec 11th layer is now buried well over a meter.

  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5