Avalanche Forecast

High -

THURSDAY NIGHT: Light flurries with localized accumulations of 5 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperatures drop to -10 C.FRIDAY: Isolated flurries with trace accumulations along the western side of the Purcells, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.SATURDAY: 5-10 cm of snow, strong southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy then clearing in the afternoon, moderate west wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

The likelihood of triggering large avalanches is still elevated due to the weak nature of the snowpack. Watch out in thin snowpack areas, where the likelihood of triggering deeper layers is the highest.On Wednesday, a large (size 3) naturally triggered avalanche was observed on a southeast aspect in the alpine near Golden. On Monday, several large (size 2) avalanches were observed throughout the region, some releasing on weak faceted grains near the base of the snowpack. On Sunday, a large (size 3) avalanche ran full-path on a southwest aspect in the alpine near Golden.On Saturday, a group of snowmobilers triggered a fatal avalanche near Invermere, also on the basal weak faceted grains. The avalanche was on a southerly aspect and ran approximately 900 to 1100 m. Two snowmobilers were caught. See here for more information.

The snowpack is weak and touchy in large portions of the Purcells. Numerous very large avalanches have been reported on a regular basis. This is the type of weak snowpack that could stick around for months. Read more here. New snow is burying large surface hoar crystals and/or sun crusts, which could eventually develop into a touchy problem as snow accumulates. The most suspect terrain features will be steep slopes and rolls below 2000 m (where the largest surface hoar exists) and steep south-facing slopes in the alpine (where sun crusts exist).The weak nature of the snowpack lies at depth. There is a weak layer around 80 to 120 cm deep, composed of sugary faceted grains, feathery surface hoar, and a sun crust. The base of the snowpack is also composed of weak faceted grains in many parts of the region. Humans have and will continue to be able to trigger these layers in areas where the snowpack is shallow.